Oregon St.

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	137.0
Current RPI:	137
Expected SOS:	82
Current SOS:	82
Current Record:	16-16
Expected Record:	16-16
Current Conf Record:	8-12
Expected Conf Record:	8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-1
Current OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC Record:	8-4
Expected OOC RPI:	211
Expected OOC SOS:	302

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-16	137.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Oregon St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Southern Utah (252.0)	BSky	H	99-82	W	100%
11-13	Wyoming (98.0)	MWC	H	66-75	L	0%
11-18	Long Beach St. (191.0)	BW	H	89-81	W	100%
11-23	St. John's (92.0)	BE	N	77-82	L	0%
11-24	Long Beach St. (191.0)	BW	N	69-74	L	0%
11-26	Marist (324.0)	MAAC	N	46-65	W	100%
12-2	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	H	78-74	W	100%
12-5	Eastern Kentucky (271.0)	OVC	H	74-62	W	100%
12-9	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	H	85-58	W	100%
12-12	Jacksonville St. (149.0)	OVC	H	70-69	W	100%
12-16	Saint Louis (148.0)	A10	H	63-60	W	100%
12-21	Kent St. (154.0)	MAC	A	79-78	L	0%
12-29	Colorado (82.0)	P12	H	76-57	W	100%
12-31	Utah (59.0)	P12	H	64-66	L	0%
1-5	Oregon (72.0)	P12	H	76-64	W	100%
1-11	Arizona (13.0)	P12	A	62-53	L	0%
1-13	Arizona St. (66.0)	P12	A	77-75	L	0%
1-18	UCLA (36.0)	P12	H	69-63	W	100%
1-20	USC (34.0)	P12	H	67-74	L	0%
1-27	Oregon (72.0)	P12	A	66-57	L	0%
2-1	Stanford (86.0)	P12	A	80-71	L	0%
2-3	California (216.0)	P12	A	74-70	L	0%
2-8	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	H	94-62	W	100%
2-10	Washington (71.0)	P12	H	97-94	W	100%
2-15	UCLA (36.0)	P12	A	75-68	L	0%
2-17	USC (34.0)	P12	A	72-59	L	0%
2-22	Arizona (13.0)	P12	H	65-75	L	0%
2-24	Arizona St. (66.0)	P12	H	79-75	W	100%
3-1	Washington (71.0)	P12	A	79-77	L	0%
3-3	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	A	67-92	W	100%
3-7	Washington (71.0)	P12	N	66-69	W	100%
3-8	USC (34.0)	P12	N	61-48	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Oregon St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Oregon St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Oregon St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Oregon St.	P12	26.36	26.36	44.44	44.44	-2.93	-2.93
USC	P12	5.39	5.39	64.52	64.52	1.56	1.56
Washington	P12	5.32	5.32	65.52	65.52	1.65	1.65
Oregon	P12	4.05	4.05	65.62	65.62	1.26	1.26
Arizona	P12	3.95	3.95	78.12	78.12	2.22	2.22
UCLA	P12	3.84	3.84	66.67	66.67	1.28	1.28
Washington St.	P12	3.82	3.82	41.38	41.38	-0.66	-0.66
Arizona St.	P12	3.80	3.80	65.52	65.52	1.18	1.18
Long Beach St.	BW	3.22	3.22	41.38	41.38	-0.56	-0.56
Stanford	P12	2.51	2.51	53.12	53.12	0.16	0.16
Colorado	P12	2.48	2.48	54.84	54.84	0.24	0.24
Utah	P12	2.43	2.43	62.07	62.07	0.59	0.59
California	P12	2.41	2.41	23.33	23.33	-1.28	-1.28
Loyola Marymount	WCC	1.64	1.64	34.48	34.48	-0.51	-0.51
Jacksonville St.	OVC	1.62	1.62	64.52	64.52	0.47	0.47
Southern Utah	BSky	1.61	1.61	37.93	37.93	-0.39	-0.39
St. John's	BE	1.61	1.61	45.16	45.16	-0.16	-0.16
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	1.61	1.61	32.14	32.14	-0.58	-0.58
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	1.56	1.56	41.18	41.18	-0.28	-0.28
Kent St.	MAC	1.56	1.56	46.88	46.88	-0.10	-0.10
Marist	MAAC	1.56	1.56	20.00	20.00	-0.94	-0.94
Saint Louis	A10	1.56	1.56	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Wyoming	MWC	1.56	1.56	58.06	58.06	0.25	0.25
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.27	0.27	62.07	62.07	0.07	0.07
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.25	0.25	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
UC Davis	BW	0.22	0.22	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
UC Irvine	BW	0.20	0.20	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.19	0.19	44.12	44.12	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.18	0.18	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.18	0.18	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.18	0.18	72.73	72.73	0.08	0.08
San Diego St.	MWC	0.17	0.17	67.74	67.74	0.06	0.06
Seattle	WAC	0.17	0.17	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Pacific	WCC	0.17	0.17	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Xavier	BE	0.17	0.17	84.85	84.85	0.12	0.12
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.17	0.17	70.00	70.00	0.07	0.07
Colorado St.	MWC	0.17	0.17	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Fresno St.	MWC	0.17	0.17	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.15	0.15	14.29	14.29	-0.11	-0.11
UC Riverside	BW	0.15	0.15	24.14	24.14	-0.08	-0.08
Gonzaga	WCC	0.15	0.15	88.24	88.24	0.12	0.12
Murray St.	OVC	0.15	0.15	82.76	82.76	0.10	0.10
Cal Poly	BW	0.15	0.15	24.14	24.14	-0.08	-0.08
Hawaii	BW	0.15	0.15	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.15	0.15	77.42	77.42	0.08	0.08
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.15	0.15	13.33	13.33	-0.11	-0.11
Kansas	B12	0.15	0.15	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
Portland St.	BSky	0.15	0.15	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	73.33	73.33	0.07	0.07
Providence	BE	0.15	0.15	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.14	0.14	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.14	0.14	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
SMU	Amer	0.14	0.14	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Idaho	BSky	0.13	0.13	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Pepperdine	WCC	0.13	0.13	16.13	16.13	-0.09	-0.09
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.13	0.13	84.85	84.85	0.09	0.09
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	12.50	12.50	-0.09	-0.09
Akron	MAC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	22.22	22.22	-0.06	-0.06
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.10	0.10	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Nebraska	B10	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Butler	BE	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
San Jose St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	10.34	10.34	-0.08	-0.08
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Creighton	BE	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	Amer	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.07	0.07
Buffalo	MAC	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
DePaul	BE	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Lehigh	Pat	0.09	0.09	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	Amer	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
BYU	WCC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Portland	WCC	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	87.88	87.88	0.06	0.06
Austin Peay	OVC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
West Virginia	B12	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Utah St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.07	0.07	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Detroit	Horz	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Georgetown	BE	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.07	0.07	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Richmond	A10	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Denver	Sum	0.07	0.07	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.07	0.07	76.67	76.67	0.04	0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	83.33	83.33	0.05	0.05
Princeton	Ivy	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
UTEP	CUSA	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Davidson	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Nevada	MWC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
UMBC	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.04	0.04	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.04	0.04	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.04	0.04	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.04	0.04	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	MAAC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UMass Lowell	AE	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Houston	Amer	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	SC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
UCF	Amer	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
USC Upstate	ASun	0.02	0.02	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00